Every Last Joule · Region record

Sichuan

Provenance, tier, and validation record for sichuan. No live curtailment figures on this page — those are on the globe.

Region id: sichuan
Country: CHN
Waste modality: Hydro
Coordinates: 30.60° N, 102.80° E

Estimated Data quality

Tier

estimated · T3-modelled

No live feed and no published total for this region. A typical-shape profile is scaled to a capacity-based or literature anchor.

Modelled profile, scaled to annual (±40%)

Uncertainty

±40% of peak GW

Published envelope for this tier. See the uncertainty model.

Source provenance

modelled-fallback · No verified upstream link

There is no verified upstream link. The snapshot is a typical-shape profile scaled to an anchor, or otherwise estimated.

Source

NEA 2024 / Sichuan hydro-spill proxy

https://www.nea.gov.cn/20251113/cc1fb0298a2944f8bd5441f67c9be9b3/c.html

Tier, provenance, and source are read at build time from src/lib/regions.ts — the same table the globe draws from. The validation record below is generated separately and gated against it by npm run ci:docs-drift.

Validation record

Last updated: 2026-08-20 · Sprint: S1 + HB integration · Paper section: Technical Validation §4.2

Source

Region id: sichuan
Country: CHN
Tier: estimated
Kind: hydro
Source: NEA 2024 / Sichuan hydro-spill proxy
Source URL: https://www.nea.gov.cn/20251113/cc1fb0298a2944f8bd5441f67c9be9b3/c.html
Loader: sichuan.json.ts
Structural gap: no

Calibration

Rate source documented in: docs/methodology/ (see links below)
Uniform across backfill years: n/a — no backfill

Multi-year backfill annual totals

Year	Backfill rows	Backfill annual TWh	Published TSO annual TWh	Δ %	Source
(no backfill or TSO anchors yet — will be populated after HB fan-out completes)

Published anchors

TSO annual curtailment (latest published): Ember China 2024 Sichuan ~8 TWh hydro spill
Ember annual: —
IRENA annual: —
Other: —

Discrepancy analysis

No backfill and no TSO anchor. Region relies solely on the live snapshot; nothing to triangulate against.

Known limitations

No public hourly archive for Chinese provincial dispatch-down. The mechanism is wet-season hydro spill (Dadu, Yalong, Jinsha river basins) plus occasional local transmission/export limits; the loader emits a hydro-seasonal shape (no diurnal peak — spill is monthly, not hour-of-day) scaled to a 30 TWh/yr central estimate from NEA 2024 river-basin utilisation, Huaon/NBS Sichuan generation, and a public July 2024 report citing 3.37 TWh of dispatch-controlled hydro spill in that single month. Annualising one monsoon month is inherently uncertain — uncertainty range 20–36 TWh, low confidence. T3-modelled, ±40% envelope; see docs/known-limitations.md item 10 and docs/methodology/china-provinces.md for the basin-to-province mapping and full source chain.