Every Last Joule · Region record

Nepal

Provenance, tier, and validation record for nepal. No live curtailment figures on this page — those are on the globe.

Region id: nepal
Country: NPL
Waste modality: Hydro
Coordinates: 28.00° N, 84.00° E

Estimated Data quality

Tier

estimated · T3-modelled

No live feed and no published total for this region. A typical-shape profile is scaled to a capacity-based or literature anchor.

Modelled profile, scaled to annual (±40%)

Uncertainty

±40% of peak GW

Published envelope for this tier. See the uncertainty model.

Source provenance

modelled-fallback · No verified upstream link

There is no verified upstream link. The snapshot is a typical-shape profile scaled to an anchor, or otherwise estimated.

Source

World Bank Nepal Development Update 2024 — estimated >0.5 TWh/yr renewable energy spillage from monsoon-season run-of-river overgeneration vs transmission bottlenecks and limited India-export capacity. NEA confirms during FY2023/24. Same modelling treatment as Ethiopia/Iceland/Colombia hydro spillage. Himalayan summer-monsoon shape (peak Jul-Sep). Gemini-3.1 research wave 4 (2026-04-30, reliability 5/5).

https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal/publication/nepal-development-update

Tier, provenance, and source are read at build time from src/lib/regions.ts — the same table the globe draws from. The validation record below is generated separately and gated against it by npm run ci:docs-drift.

Validation record

Last updated: 2026-08-20 · Sprint: S1 + HB integration · Paper section: Technical Validation §4.2

Source

Region id: nepal
Country: NPL
Tier: estimated
Kind: hydro
Source: World Bank Nepal Development Update 2024 — estimated >0.5 TWh/yr renewable energy spillage from monsoon-season run-of-river overgeneration vs transmission bottlenecks and limited India-export capacity. NEA confirms during FY2023/24. Same modelling treatment as Ethiopia/Iceland/Colombia hydro spillage. Himalayan summer-monsoon shape (peak Jul-Sep). Gemini-3.1 research wave 4 (2026-04-30, reliability 5/5).
Source URL: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/nepal/publication/nepal-development-update
Loader: (no single-file loader — see multi-region source)
Structural gap: no

Calibration

Rate source documented in: docs/methodology/ (see links below)
Uniform across backfill years: n/a — no backfill

Multi-year backfill annual totals

Year	Backfill rows	Backfill annual TWh	Published TSO annual TWh	Δ %	Source
(no backfill or TSO anchors yet — will be populated after HB fan-out completes)

Published anchors

TSO annual curtailment (latest published): —
Ember annual: —
IRENA annual: —
Other: —

Discrepancy analysis

The 0.5 TWh anchor is a conservative baseline reflecting FY2023/24 Nepal hydrology + grid + export reality. Year-on-year variance is significant (monsoon-driven). Wet years could push this to 0.8–1.0 TWh; dry years closer to 0.2–0.3 TWh. T3 ±40% envelope (0.3–0.7 TWh) covers the typical year reasonably well.

Known limitations

Nepal's grid is hydro-dominant (~95% of generation) with rapid solar+small-hydro IPP buildout post-2020. Spillage is concentrated in monsoon season (Jun-Sep) when run-of-river plants generate near rated capacity simultaneously, while domestic demand and India-export capacity (NEA-PGCIL cross-border lines) saturate. The phenomenon is methodologically identical to the spillage already modelled for Ethiopia (Blue Nile / Kiremt monsoon), Iceland (glacial melt), Sichuan (Yangtze monsoon), and Colombia (bimodal Andean precipitation).

A future T2-annual-calibrated promotion is straightforward: NEA publishes annual reports with monthly hydrology and dispatch data. Quarterly refresh against the latest NEA Annual Report would suffice. T1a-live would require either an NEA-published hourly feed (none currently exists) or modelling spillage from the published monthly hydrology.

T3-modelled, ±40% envelope. Himalayan summer-monsoon hydro-seasonal shape (HYDRO_SEASONAL_SHARES.nepal) — peak Jul-Sep, dry trough Dec-Feb.