Every Last Joule · Region record

Mexico Solar

Provenance, tier, and validation record for mexico-solar. No live curtailment figures on this page — those are on the globe.

Region id: mexico-solar
Country: MEX
Waste modality: Solar
Coordinates: 28.00° N, 109.00° W

Estimated Data quality

Tier

estimated · T3-modelled

No live feed and no published total for this region. A typical-shape profile is scaled to a capacity-based or literature anchor.

Modelled profile, scaled to annual (±40%)

Uncertainty

±40% of peak GW

Published envelope for this tier. See the uncertainty model.

Source provenance

modelled-fallback · No verified upstream link

There is no verified upstream link. The snapshot is a typical-shape profile scaled to an anchor, or otherwise estimated.

Source

SENER PRODESEN 2024-2038 + CRE + NREL — modelled T3 ~0.8 TWh/yr solar share of the ~1.2 TWh national VRE-curtailment anchor (Sonora/Chihuahua/Coahuila northern-grid transmission saturation). No measured CENACE feed; no fabricated hourly data. Excludes hydro vertimientos.

https://www.gob.mx/sener/documentos/programa-de-desarrollo-del-sistema-electrico-nacional-2024-2038

Tier, provenance, and source are read at build time from src/lib/regions.ts — the same table the globe draws from. The validation record below is generated separately and gated against it by npm run ci:docs-drift.

Validation record

Last updated: 2026-08-20 · Sprint: S1 + HB integration · Paper section: Technical Validation §4.2

Source

Region id: mexico-solar
Country: MEX
Tier: estimated
Kind: solar
Source: SENER PRODESEN 2024-2038 + CRE + NREL — modelled T3 ~0.8 TWh/yr solar share of the ~1.2 TWh national VRE-curtailment anchor (Sonora/Chihuahua/Coahuila northern-grid transmission saturation). No measured CENACE feed; no fabricated hourly data. Excludes hydro vertimientos.
Source URL: https://www.gob.mx/sener/documentos/programa-de-desarrollo-del-sistema-electrico-nacional-2024-2038
Loader: mexico.json.ts
Structural gap: no

Calibration

Rate source documented in: docs/methodology/ (see links below)
Uniform across backfill years: n/a — no backfill

Multi-year backfill annual totals

Year	Backfill rows	Backfill annual TWh	Published TSO annual TWh	Δ %	Source
(no backfill or TSO anchors yet — will be populated after HB fan-out completes)

Published anchors

TSO annual curtailment (latest published): —
Ember annual: —
IRENA annual: —
Other: —

Discrepancy analysis

Per-fuel split of the former single mexico region (2026-06-17). The ~1.2 TWh anchor covered both northern-grid solar and Oaxaca wind, but was emitted as one "solar" region — splitting corrects the fuel attribution. Modelled T3; promote if CENACE ever exposes a measured feed.

Known limitations

Magnitude is a modelled estimate (typical solar shape × an annual anchor), not a measured series. ±40% T3 envelope. Mexican curtailment is real (transmission-constrained Sonora/Chihuahua/Coahuila northern-grid) but low and unquantified at the hourly level.